Republican Debate Analysis: Trump again missing
Were debates even worthwhile if none of the people on stage get nomination?
All of us–reporters, political observers, politicians, and feminist leaders–watched the Republican debate wondering whether there was a point to candidates arguing with each other so that one of them places second in the presidential primary.
That’s essentially what we’ve watched with all four presidential debates. Former President Donald Trump still commands in the polls. According to Monmouth, 58 percent of voters in that party prefer him over the other candidates on the debate stage. Florida Gov. Don DeSantis garners 18 percent, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley gets 12 percent.
On Wednesday, the candidates had their last chance to make their case to a national audience before the Iowa caucuses, which is 40 days from now. Democrats seem content with running President Joe Biden despite concerns about his age.
There’s a sense that none of the candidates we watched will ultimately shape the Republican rhetoric and strategy we see in the general election. That will once again be Trump’s show. I’m interested in what political minds he surrounds himself with and their backgrounds. Whoever it is, it won’t be a cakewalk for Democratic strategists and operatives.
It’ll be a bruising and contentious fight with Republicans seeking to neutralize the most influential group–the pro-choice community–by downplaying their opposition to abortion. This is the point where feminists should embrace reproductive justice and say that their message is about more than just access to abortion. It’s about widespread public transit for poor families. Subsidized grocery delivery for food stamp recipients. Universal daycare. Investment in public education. That’s an ambitious and bold vision for what the feminist message should be in 2024. It’s also inspiring and will put the game-winning ball in the hands of the women leading the party.
I’ll proceed with my analysis of the debate. Haley, DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie again took the stage. The first question Megyn Kelly asked was about Trump. She pointed out his dominance.
DeSantis was irritated with the question. He was upset about Trump leading in Florida. He then deflected his criticism of Trump by turning his attention toward teacher unions, Anthony Fauci, and liberals. I’m not sure how that will help him gain ground on Trump. He needed to attack him directly. None of the candidates have directly attacked the frontrunner. And none have gained ground.
Kelly asked Haley about her wealth and how she accrued it. She said she would take donations from anyone who wanted to help her campaign, including corporate support. Again no mention of Trump.
DeSantis and Haley spent more time sparring with each other than discussing Trump. In some ways, Trump’s strategy was brilliant. He let the other candidates tear each other down on national television while he sat at home maintaining his lead. That’s never been possible in American politics before.
Kelly shifted the debate’s focus on what each candidate said during their campaign. These debates would have been more productive had the candidates been focused on what the frontrunner said and did before, during, and after his administration. Moderators conducted them as if Trump didn’t exist or with simply a brief mention. And for that, they should be criticized. Chris Cuomo started the debate by saying this made history. But nothing historic happened. It’s a footnote to Donald Trump’s eventual candidacy.
Ramaswamy said that the country was heading to fascism with Joe Biden. Then he said the only person who was more fascist was Nikki Haley. It stunned me that he left out the most authoritarian person, who was up by 50 points on him. The cognitive dissonance of the remark left a viewer wondering if they lived in the same country.
Kelly asked Christie about his remarks regarding Trump. Christie said he got in the race to stop Trump. Christie called him a loser.
Christie said being the only person on the stage who took on Trump was challenging. He pointed out the obvious: Trump is way ahead in the polls. He criticized the others for not speaking about Trump. Christie was inspiring, even to me as a Democrat. He called Trump a dictator.
“The fact is the truth needs to be told,” Christie said. “And for us to go 17 minutes without discussing the guy with all those gaudy statistics is ridiculous.”
The audience applauded him.
DeSantis didn’t commit to whether he would send troops to Israel. Christie said he would send the American Army to extract citizens who had been held hostage. Ramaswamy said he was pro-Israel, but he didn’t think the U.N. or United States getting deeply involved.
What’s frightening about all this tension in the MIddle East is that there will still be problems after the next election. Donald Trump won’t have James Mattis to fix what he does wrong. Or the anonymous person who documented the administration and kept it together secretly. It’s too bad Mattis didn’t run. Or that other person.
Christie seemed to get the most applause. He called Ramaswamy a blowhard. He then defended Nikki Haley from the attacks leveled at her. He said she was an intelligent, accomplished woman and Ramaswamy shouldn’t insult her. The applause drowned out Ramaswamy, who got jeered and booed by the audience when he responded.
I’d expect Christie to get a big poll bump after this debate. I'm unsure if it will be enough to overcome Trump.
Immigration came up after the break. Relative to Donald Trump–who suggested behind closed doors that they construct alligator-filled moats on the border during his first administration–the candidates who took the stage on Wednesday seemed nuanced with their approach to dealing with drug cartels. Trump will talk about the opioid epidemic like he knew people who died of heroin or fentanyl overdose. He didn’t. I’ve known countless. So have most people. When Boomers finally pass the torch, it will be to a generation that was ravaged by heroin and had it be one of their most formative influences. I’ve never seen a candidate–Republican or Democratic–speak in a way that showed a personal connection to the crisis. They speak about it abstractly.
The economy was next. Haley said it started with printing money at the Federal Reserve. In response, the Fed raised interest rates. People aren’t conscious of how this affects the population. First, inflation caused people to pay for everything with credit. Now, it’s collecting interest. So they’ve been hit with high prices they can’t afford and an inability to pay off the debt they’ve amassed. It’s fair to criticize Biden and many people on the left for not acknowledging that printing money causes inflation.
After another break, Kelly tried to focus on Trump. They showed a video where Trump said he would have an ideological screening of Muslims who wanted to come to America. Haley said that it wasn’t about religion but more about the region that immigrants come from and whether they’re riven with terrorist groups. DeSantis said Europe was committing suicide by allowing all the Muslims that came in as refugees. He said it was responsible for the rising antisemitism in Germany.
Donald Trump said he’d be a dictator on Day 1. He said he would start the largest deportation in American history. Christie said it was predictable.
“There’s no mystery to what he wants to do,” Christie said. “He started out his campaign by saying he’s your retribution.”
He took his fellow candidates to task for saying they’d support Trump even if he were convicted of federal felonies.
“Do I think he was kidding when he said he was a dictator?” Christie said. “All you have to do is look at the history.”
“He doesn’t care for the American people. It’s Donald Trump first.”
DeSantis said Trump was too old to be president. He didn’t take as tough a tact as Christie. He tried to outflank Trump on the right by saying he’d deport more. He said he was cheering Trump on but didn’t deliver. Christie said DeSantis was afraid of taking on Trump.
He said Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy feared offending Trump with the truth. It was a striking criticism.
Ramaswamy said that all three candidates had been licking Trump’s boots. He pointed out that Christie prepped Trump for debates. But then he said that the great replacement theory I’ve written about was an accepted view of the Democratic party.
Kelly asked Christie about gender-affirming care for children. Kelly characterized it as inhumane. Christie said he wanted the government to stay out of healthcare. All the other candidates have pushed opposition to gender-affirming care as central to their platform. The Republicans are framing the debate as if they are for “parental rights” when they oppose gender-affirming care for children and for keeping transgender education out of schools. Neither Democrats nor Republicans ever consult childhood development psychologists when shaping rhetoric to address the issue.
A recorded questioner asked the candidates how they would restore faith in the justice department and the FBI. The indictments of Trump have made his supporters lose faith in the legal system. Sadly, the judiciary was the only institution in which people had the most remaining faith. Should Trump get elected, he may politicize the department and go after his enemies. He may also deputize the FBI to investigate activists and journalists. If we don’t have a file already, we will if or when he becomes president.
That’s my analysis for the night. I have to drive Uber.